morwen | (no subject)

For our future reference. RISK probabilities (per attack), with the rules you get when you open the box. These were done stochastically, so forgive any minor inaccuracies (and be amazed by any large inaccuracies)

                                                   3v2                 3v1     2v2                 2v1     1v2     1v1
                                                   37.0% (tie 33.7%)   66.0%   22.7% (tie 32.5%)   57.9%   25.5%   41.9%  
fortified                                          18.9% (tie 31.4%)   49.0%   10.1% (tie 24.7%)   41.8%   14.1%   27.8%  
           bunker                                  24.1% (tie 40.8%)   49.3%   14.5% (tie 32.2%)   41.9%   14.0%   27.9%  
fortified  bunker                                  10.8% (tie 33.8%)   33.4%    5.7% (tie 21.9%)   26.8%    6.4%   16.6%  
                   ammo shortage                   50.8% (tie 30.7%)   82.5%   31.3% (tie 37.3%)   74.4%   41.9%   58.4%  
fortified          ammo shortage                   27.4% (tie 33.2%)   65.8%   14.7% (tie 32.0%)   57.8%   25.6%   41.8%  
           bunker  ammo shortage                   37.1% (tie 33.7%)   66.0%   22.7% (tie 32.5%)   58.0%   25.6%   41.8%  
fortified  bunker  ammo shortage                   18.8% (tie 31.3%)   49.3%   10.2% (tie 24.5%)   41.4%   13.9%   27.9%  
                                  1st at enclave   43.1% (tie 38.2%)   82.7%   31.4% (tie 37.5%)   74.6%   25.3%   58.3%  
fortified                         1st at enclave   23.9% (tie 40.5%)   65.8%   14.6% (tie 32.1%)   58.0%   14.0%   41.9%  
           bunker                 1st at enclave   26.5% (tie 52.3%)   65.9%   19.3% (tie 45.2%)   58.0%   13.9%   42.0%  
fortified  bunker                 1st at enclave   12.8% (tie 49.3%)   49.5%    7.9% (tie 34.3%)   41.6%    6.4%   28.0%  
                   ammo shortage  1st at enclave   61.9% (tie 25.5%)   92.3%   44.7% (tie 32.4%)   86.1%   42.2%   72.0%  
fortified          ammo shortage  1st at enclave   37.2% (tie 33.6%)   82.5%   22.7% (tie 32.4%)   74.7%   25.6%   58.3%  
           bunker  ammo shortage  1st at enclave   43.1% (tie 38.3%)   82.8%   31.5% (tie 37.3%)   74.7%   25.7%   58.5%  
fortified  bunker  ammo shortage  1st at enclave   24.0% (tie 41.0%)   66.0%   14.8% (tie 32.0%)   57.9%   13.9%   41.7%

I worked this out with a program today. Yes, I am trying to relax. Why are you looking at me strangely.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

*hands you a <table></table>*

I'm looking at you strangely because you worked it out with a program not with probability.

that would have involved thinking, though.

i'm gonna be generalising it to more than just single attacks anyway and the engine i wrote provides a useful basis for that.